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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-08-12T15:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-08-12T15:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9089/-1
CME Note: CME associated with prominence eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 13:42Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-08-15T07:43Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-08-16T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Aug 13 1200 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The partial halo CME, first seen in the SOHO LASCO C2 field of view at 14:48 UT on August 12, was associated with the long duration B7.0 flare and the filament eruption from the south-west quadrant. The CME had the angular width of about 210 degrees and the projected plane of the sky speed of about 500 km/s (as reported by CACTUS software package).  
The glancing blow from the CME-driven shock wave, associated with the partial halo CME, might be expected to arrive at the Earth in the early morning of April 16.
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Lead Time: 42.48 hour(s)
Difference: -20.28 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-08-13T13:14Z

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